War and Agriculture

March 7, 2022

29% of global wheat production comes from Russia and Ukraine. A large proportion of the Middle East and North Africa import over half of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

Then we have fertilizer. Potash is a huge input, with Russia and Belarus as the number 2 and 3 producers globally. With a drop in supply of fertilizer, it’s a safe bet we’ll see a decline in global crop yields. Add the fact that Ukrainian farmers are not likely to be planting this season, and you have the stage set for large increases in food prices and even shortages in some parts of the world by the end of the year.

The USA is fairly insulated thanks to our agricultural production, but with global markets, prices will rise. The need for shortening supply chains and investing in regional agriculture has never been greater.